Since its implementation in 2017, China’s clean heating policy has considerably improved air quality.  However, the share of non-fossil sources in China’s urban district heating systems remains low. According to a Princeton-led study, the diversification and decarbonization of heat sources for district heating systems will be crucial for China to reach its carbon neutrality goal by 2060.

Compiling an infrastructure database of over 1,000 power and industrial plants in northern China, C-PREE research associate Dr. Shangwei Liu, Prof. Denise Mauzerall, and their research team examined the cost and emissions implications of near-term (2020-2030) district heating investment scenarios based on the assessment of 15 district heating technologies. 

The researchers found that replacing polluting coal technologies with new and improved coal-fired combined heat and power plants will lead to substantial carbon lock-in and hinder decommissioning of associated coal-fired electricity generation. Expanding the use of industrial waste heat and air/ground-source heat pumps can avoid the need for new combined heat and power construction and reduce carbon emissions by 26% from 2020 to 2030. The findings indicate the importance of the government’s recent proposals to decarbonize district heating.

“Strategic low-carbon district heating technologies will be needed for China to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060,” explains Prof. Denise Mauzerall, a faculty member at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.  “Our findings indicate the importance of the government’s recent proposals to decarbonize district heating. These efforts should be immediately prioritized to avoid long term carbon lock-in.”