A study led by Indiana University, Bloomington and Princeton presents an unprecedented behind-the-scenes look at the collaborative process that determines the IPCC’s sea level rise projections and the social dynamics shaping climate assessments.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body of the United Nations, has long been at the forefront of climate science, regularly producing state-of-the-science assessments and possible solution pathways for policymakers.  In a first-of-its-kind ethnographic study, researchers from Indiana University Bloomington and Princeton University provide insights into the human and scientific dynamics that shape global climate assessments and sea level rise projections in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).  

Based on unprecedented access to all four of the IPCC Lead Author Meetings during the multi-year creation of AR6, the study focuses on “the curve” - a visual representation of sea level rise projections under various emissions scenarios.  The curve uniquely incorporates both high-confidence projections and low-likelihood, “worst-case” scenarios related to complex events such as Marine Ice Cliff Instability. 

“Today, many institutions made up of experts face skepticism from the public due to the obscure nature of both the material they evaluate and their decision processes.  IPCC is not immune to such skepticism.” says co-author Michael Oppenheimer, a Professor at the School of Public and International Affairs and the High Meadows Environmental Institute at Princeton University. “It’s better for IPCC, for science in general, and for the public if the process of evaluating and making judgments about science is clear and transparent. At the same time, such an approach provides IPCC with insights about its internal processes which are key to making improvements in its assessments over time.”